During a glowing sunset in Memphis in May, Sharon Wilson aimed a infrared camera at a major computing facility to reveal a global danger that was invisible. Free from emissions regulations, the fossil fuel-powered engines powering a massive AI computing clusters were releasing harmful gases into the Tennessee sky.
“It was jaw-dropping,” commented the observer, who calculates the facility was releasing more methane than a sizeable energy plant. “An absolutely staggering level of contamination.”
Around the same time, the facility’s core product was dominating news feeds, echoing conspiracy theories and generating misleading content. Observers have cited generated images of offensive characters as an example of what natural gas was being burned to produce. “How does this contribute positively?”
This concern is shared in asking this question. Researchers are watching the AI boom with concern as it pollutes the planet with emissions and the online sphere with dangers ranging from false wellness advice to synthetic explicit media.
A number of analysts fear datacentres may derail the move to a clean economy, adding an unnecessary hurdle to the enormous challenge of preventing the planet from heating beyond critical thresholds. A different view is hopeful about the energy costs, arguing they pale in comparison not just to traditional heavy industries, but also to the technology’s power to reshape society.
The Surging Energy Hunger
While an energy professor ran models for an global energy body, she spent not much focus worrying about the emissions impact of computers. Transport, agriculture and buildings were among the knotty problems consuming the carbon budget.
But in a specific country, the computational hunger has reached levels that are increasingly alarming. Datacentres consume one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are projected to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The rapid expansion of these computing facilities has outpaced the electricity grid's capacity, leading to effective bans on new grid connections.
“The trend of huge, accelerating increase is what is so alarming,” said Daly. “It is uncertain whether this is a special example or a precursor of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a cautionary tale.”
Internationally, datacentres consume a small fraction of the world’s electricity but may soon require significantly more. Their portion of electricity demand in major economies is estimated to grow substantially by 2035. Some demand is being met through deals to buy green electricity, while some tech firms have made agreements to use atomic power.
But for the foreseeable future, coal and gas are set to dominate supply. In some regions, datacentres are concentrated in areas reliant on coal-heavy power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for continuing with dirty energy. “This idea that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – it’s not enough,” said Daly. “Since when there’s a significant new demand of energy demand that wants to grow, it will land on these underused polluting infrastructure.”
Assessing the Climate Impact of a Query
Does using chatbots to plan holidays endanger the planet? Tech companies have hesitated to provide transparent metrics on their AI energy footprints, but common estimates hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, rising considerably for more complex tasks. One CEO recently asserted a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These amounts are very small compared to activities such as flying, eating meat, or driving a car. Nevertheless, critics worry about the enormous size of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the fervour with which companies have embedded it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of automated assistants is expected to add to the ongoing power consumption.
“The issue that troubles me is that we’re deploying AI in such a way that we don’t have a good idea of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The current approach is on the belief that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of planning for it.”
The Potential for Positive Impact
What if AI could balance its energy debts by reducing emissions in other parts of the economy? That is the thesis put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to manage renewable energy, identify sustainable food sources, improve EV components and encourage consumers toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can accelerate the deployment of those clean technologies by basically advancing their development along the curve of development and use,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The projected carbon savings carry large uncertainties – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and rebound effects may undercut the gains. But instances already exist. Some companies report AI has helped cut cooling in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has optimised wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to spot issues.
Because other sectors are so polluting, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a minor amount to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “In the power sector we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “But other sectors are not there yet.”
The Counterargument: Facilitating Fossil Fuels
Clean tech advocates are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s powerful capabilities. The fossil fuel industry is also a significant user. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost available oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its emissions per barrel, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a gap between data analysis and real-world changes.
“This is being utilized as an pretext to postpone meaningful steps,” said one campaigner. “Monitoring methane from space is not stopping methane.”
Perhaps even more worrying than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create highly effective advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of driving demand. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could make decisions on a customer’s behalf.
“The prevailing story is really focused on this false comparison between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is dangerous to overlook the negative use cases.”
Calls for Pause and Regulation
A number of experts are calling to hit pause, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have called for a stop on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Different voices have called to guide the technology to do good. A few countries have started to include AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to tax AI to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as high-risk. They also want investors to consider enabled emissions when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the optimal application of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a balanced approach, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are frugal by design.
“Maybe I’m a little naive, but I still believe that AI can be a force for good in terms of fighting the climate crisis – creating the next generation of batteries, tracking deforestation, anticipating hurricanes,” she said. “There are so many good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re generating websites filled with AI slop while datacentres are getting powered by diesel generators.”
