Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
